Geo-Delphos

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Al término de la Guerra Fría, el mundo se sentía aliviado de que la amenaza de la guerra  nuclear que siempre había estado presente entre ambos bandos, se había evitado y que ahora los arsenales nucleares serían desmantelados para asegurar el futuro de la humanidad. Sin embargo, durante los últimos meses, se ha evidenciado que existe una preocupación de ambos países por el estado de su capacidad militar nuclear, e incluso planes para modernizarla. Podemos deducir, que ambas naciones aún se observan como enemigas, y por ende deben tomar precauciones para su defensa.

El poderoso arsenal de armas nucleares de Estados Unidos, engendrado por la Segunda Guerra Mundial y alimentado por la Guerra Fría está declinando en poder y propósito, así como la capacidad de los cuerpos militares de manejar esas poderosas armas. Al mismo tiempo, los esfuerzos mundiales por contener la proliferación nuclear han sido ineficaces.[/lang_es][lang_en] 

At the end of the Cold War the world felt relief because the threaten of a nuclear war, which has been always present in both countries, had been avoided and now, nuclear weapons would be destroyed in order to ensure the future of the mankind. Notwithstanding the above, during the last month a concern of both countries about the state of their respective nuclear power has been shown, included plans for its modernization. We could conclude that both nations are still watching each other as enemies and therefore they must take precautions for their defense.

The powerful US. nuclear arsenal, born in the II world war and  feed by the cold war, is declining its power and purpose. The same is happening with the Military Corps capability to manage such a powerful weapon. At the same time the world efforts for no – proliferation has been ineffective.

The President of the Joint Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen wrote in the last issue of the military review “Joint Force Quarterly”, It is time that the country upgrades its nuclear strategy. He refers to the deterrence nuclear factor. The idea that the sole danger that a possible US nuclear retaliation could implies, is enough to dissuade the enemy attack with arms of mass destruction.

Both presidencial candidates are against nuclear proliferation, there is no doubt about it. Barack Obama and John McCain state in their campaigns that they support the US no – proliferation commitment, however none of them literally say that  the security or the credibility of the arsenal is under questioning.  This is an argument of republican legislators. Republican  Senator John Kyl for Arizona, said in a speech last 15 of september, that the nuclear net of industrial plants and laboratories, in some cases are old and falling down and that is equivalent to a “national emergency”.

Recently the USAF, has informed about the creation of a Nuclear Task Force, under the commnad of a three star General, which will gather all the air means with nuclear capabilities.

. The amount of US. nuclear weapons arsenal is secret, but M.Kristensen, member of the US. Scientist Federation, and his colleage the expert Robert. S. Norris have been watching the situation of the nuclear arsenal, and have calculated that the total active nuclear heads are 4,075 and 1,260  reserve aproximately

The 2020 Nuclear Deterrence System Plan announced by the Russian President Dmitri Medvédev, includes the creation of a new space defense program. During the meeting that the President held with the high military command in Oremburg (south of the Urals Mountains), he stated that a nuclear systems upgrade will guarantee “The decision making process in different military and political situations”

The program which will be finished next december, will create an “Aerospace Defense System”, has informed the Russian agency press Itar. Tass. “ We are planning at a great scale the manufacture of different types of war ships, particularly nuclear submarines with cruiser missiles

The Russian First Minister Vladimir Putin, announced a 27% increase in the 2009 defense and security  budget, which will reach 2,4 billion Roubles (70.000 million  Euros)

Since a few days ago Russia carried out a successful rehearsal of the 8,000 kilometers range Bulava intercontinental missile, which will be mounted on the last generation of atomic submarines.  30 tons missiles are almost impossible to defeat by today´s air defense systems, due to his high velocity and the capability to avoid radars and antimissiles by  modifying its trajectory during flight,

All this happens when the relations between both countries has suffered mutual recriminations related with the Caucasus Conflict, the anti missiles shield installation in Central Europe and the US. support given to the former Soviet Republics in terms to be part of  NATO.

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Recientemente Dante Caputo Secretario de Asuntos Políticos de la Organización de Estados Americanos, indico que “América Latina parece encaminada a un proceso de rearme que es realmente muy peligroso para la región”. Pero sin dudas que esta región no es la única que está desarrollando planes de rearme.

Cinco institutos líderes en investigación sobre la paz presentaron en Berlín su informe anual  2008 en el que criticaron el rearme mundial encabezado por Estados Unidos e instaron al gobierno alemán y a la Unión Europea a adoptar políticas más activas a favor del desarme y la paz mundial. “La nueva carrera armamentista tiene una diversidad de actores que la hacen más peligrosa que la Guerra Fría” dijo Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, del Centro Internacional de Conversión (BICC) de Bonn.[/lang_es][lang_en]

Dante Caputo, Secretary of Politic Affairs of the Organization of American States, recently said “Latin America seems to be under a rearmament process which is really dangerous for the region” However, there is no doubt that this region is not the only one that  is developing rearmament plans.

Five institutes leaders in peace investigation, announced in Berlin their 2008 annual report in which they critize world rearmament leaded by the US. They appeal to German government and European Union the adoption of more active policies for desarmament and world peace. “The new armament race has a variety of actors that make it danger than the Cold War” said Andreas Heinemann-Gruder, member of the Bonn International Conversion Center (BICC).

Except US, countries that have more expenses on armament are Great Britain, France, China and Japan. However, the main rates of growth registered in weapon acquisitions, in between 25 and 30 %, were India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Russia.

As the Russian vice-first Minister Serguei Ivanov said, “For Russia the 2009 State contracts of armament  will be 1,3 billion Roubles” (more than US$ 54 million). In 2009 Russia will put on service new Bulava-M balistic missile, capable to avoid the US. anti missiles shield DAM., deployed over the IV generation atomic submarines. Russia signed contracts untill 2011, for more than US $5.000 million exports of naval weapons, replied today Iván Goncharenko, deputy of the Russian Group Rosoboronexport.

These contracts, which have until 2011,different execution times, represent the 21% of   this public company fiscal requirements, specialized on international promotion of Russian armament

The Leader of the Libyan revolution Muammar al- Gaddafi who, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry source, will be arriving to Moscow next october 31st, has no visited Russia since 1985. Experts and analysts state that this visit could give a support to important contracts related with armament exports. According  to a Public Corporation Roctex (Russian Technologies) source, even though today there are not significant contracts signed with Lybia, the possibility of supply this country with sixteen Su-30 MKI airplanes, T-90 armored vehicles, Tor-M2E missiles system and spare parts for  material and armament sold before, is being considered.

“France signed a MOU which considers sell to Lybia up to eighteen Rafale airplanes, with a cost of 2,200 million Euros”, said Konstantin Makienko, expert of the Technologies and Strategies Analysis Center.  The transaction has not been already executed and the Russian airplanes has nothing to envy the French ones.

On the other hand, the European Union Security and Defense Policy, according to the 2010 Global Commitment, the contribution to Combat Groups Development and the participation in the European Defense Agency, considers that their State members actively participate in NATO initiatives. This initiatives have been enhanced and transformed, particularly the Praga Capabilities Commitment and  the Response Force. Because of that it is necessary to face the expenses produced by the vital participation in NATO internacional programs, such as NAEW ( Early Warning), NSIP (Investment in Security), which consider all kind of conventional armament. (Combat Vehicles, Fregates, Submarines, Airplanes, Helicopters etc.) For example, only Spain has 2008 expenses of 202,050 million Euros.

As another example we have the Greek Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defense (KYSEA), which has accepted a 2006-2010 budget of 11.39 thousand million Euros, to modernize its military equipment, taking into account that Turkey has a commitment with the acquisition of one hundred  F-35s.

For example, in the Asian continent, India is also under a defense system modernization process, and it has signed various contracts with Israeli Companies. Pakistan, its potential enemy has being doing the same.

The real true shows that the world is under rearmament, not only nuclear weapons, but conventional ones. Nobody wants to talk about the armament race, but there is no doubt that it is begining and not only at regional level but at world level. The question is : Could world peace be guaranteed considering that all are being rearmed, having as a reference their potential enemies? (22. OCT.2008)

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