Geo-Delphos

BRAZIL THE SOUTH AMERICAN POWER:

Brazil is known as one of the top seven economies in the world. Though is still early to measure the crisis impact on the economic growth, it is known that in 2009 a decreasing is expected. According to analysts of the Central Bank of Brazil, the growth estimation is 3,4%. Four month ago, 4% was expected.

The government has admitted a growth detention of the gross domestic product. The expectation is between 3 and 3,5 % – one point less of what was expected for August when the 2009 budget were planned.

Despite this situation, Brazil is increasing its food production while food catastrophe is coming over the world´s poorest countries. As a matter of fact there are 350 million hectares of available lands in all the Brazilian territory however, only between 70 and 80 million hectares are being used. In terms of energy, according to analysts the potential is huge. Brazil is trying to change its dependance on imports. There are new important oil reserve sources discovered in “Cuenca de Santos” and there are explorations agreements related with a southern gas pipe and a regional connection. The Brazilian total production will increase from 2,3 million barrel daily to 4,1 million. Tupi and the pre-sal area will also increase the figures, especially after 2013.

Brazil has a political, economic and domestic stability and its foreign policy has several initiatives focused on South American leadership and regional association. As a proof of that Brazil is member of MERCOSUR, UNASUR and South American Defense Council.

However, there are a combination of factors that show an increase weakness in domestic security. According to UNESCO statistics, Brazil is within the top four countries with the major amount of death caused by fire weapons (between 120 and 136 per day), as kidnapping in Colombia and México.

Similar indicators were revealed by 2008 “Global Peace Index”. Brazil is the second cocaine consumer population after the US. Many organized crime groups control the majority of “Favelas” threatening companies and managers security conditions. Last decade convict population has been dramatically increased in four times, keeping relations with delinquency. There are indicators of police corruption and the interest in security outsourcing has also increased.

Brazil imports volume of goods, though it is not the only case in the hemisphere where criminal organizations begun with drug trafficking and then weapons trafficking – which is the second profitable crime- continuing with kidnapping and white slave trade.

As a result, security situation is a huge problem for Brazilian Domestic Policy. The idea of categorize delinquency acts as terrorism, increase penalties and support resolutions taken by authorities are being debating.

The Brazilian Armed Forces has an uncertain frame to develop contingency plans against the organized crime and drug trafficking, especially in the big cities and in the Amazonas. Periodically, the idea of extend its range of action, strengthening its legal and military intervention capabilities are being debated

There are indicators about links between Brazilian delinquency and armed groups from another countries, among them, Colombians which would be operating in frontier areas and inside of unprotected migratory corridors. To this respect FARCS are under a fragmentation, desertion and demovilization process, so this would be result in an organized crime activities with intraregionals repercussions.

Brazil, beside being contradicting the certainty of the equation between stability and security, is identifying a tendency in which Non – State violence gets a character mostly urban, however it gets some risks related with the State capability to control its territory, so it is difficult in those circumtances and escenaries that the Armed Forces do not get involved in tasks that go beyond the exceptional, subsidiary or residual.

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