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Definitivamente, los latinoamericanos debemos tratar de comprender que para los Estados Unidos, nuestro continente no es de interés estratégico, o dicho de otra forma, la mirada de esta potencia a la región históricamente no ha tenido –en las últimas décadas- la relevancia con la que dirige su política exterior hacia otras regiones. Como tal las políticas que tradicionalmente se han elaborado y gestionado hacia Latinoamérica no van a cambiar sustancialmente, independiente de quién sea elegido como el próximo presidente de los Estados Unidos. A pesar que por lo visto esta será una elección presidencial muy cerrada, y posiblemente serán los 9 ó 10 millones de votantes latinos –de un total de más de 46 millones de habitantes, los que decidirán quién es el ganador de la Casa Blanca. Nunca en la historia de Estados Unidos los votantes hispanos habían sido tan buscados, pero ello no indica que la política de EE.UU hacia los países de origen de esos votantes hispanos necesariamente vaya a cambiar.
Ambos candidatos, no han dado señales de un mayor interés por la región fuera de los temas tradicionales relacionados fundamentalmente con aspectos de inmigración y el tráfico de drogas. Es más, las posturas del candidato demócrata Barack Obama sobre el libre comercio y la de su rival republicano John McCain sobre la inmigración no son de las mejores para Latinoamérica. Ante, una pregunta que se le hizo sobre Latinoamérica al Senador Obama respondió: “Cuando se termine la guerra en Irak podremos volver a enfocar nuestra atención en Latinoamérica“. No estamos en sus prioridades para nada.[/lang_es][lang_en]
Definetely, we the Latinamericans must understand that our continent is not part of the United States strategic interest. In other words, in the last decades its interest in the region has not got the same historical relevance as they have conducted its foreign policies in other regions. As a matter of fact, regardless who is going to be elected as the next President of the United States, the policies that has been traditionally designed for latinamerica, will not have essential changes. Despite that, and according of what has been observed, this will be a very close presidential election and it might have nine or ten million latin voters – of more than 46 million people – deciding who is going to be in the White House. Never in the history latinamerican voters had been so required, however this fact will not imply changes in the US policies for latinamerican countries where the voters belong.
Besides traditional topics mainly related with inmigration and drug trafficking, both candidates have not given signs of interest in the region. The position of the democratic candidate Barack Obama about free trade, and the opinion of his opponent, the republican candidate John McCain about inmigration are not the best for Latinamerica. When Senator Obama was requested to answer a question about Latinamerica, replied. “When the war in Iraq is over we could focus our atention in Latinamerica again” We are not in the US. priorities at all.
By reviewing history we will understand that the only opportunity when the US considered our continent as of strategic importance was in 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis. Therefore, it could be infered that China and Russia are interested in this region and it is strategically important. As a matter of fact, beyond the economic aspects they are interesting in supporting countries of this region. In this context the US should review its strategy for Latinamerica in order to decrease the influence of this two giants.
Traditionally the US. have set its strategic interest in Europe, Middle East and Asia. Today we can see different levels of competition between Europe and Asia against the US., so it seems that the economical crisis and the possibility of a military failure in Iraq have raised in controversy about the preponderance of the US role, as the only survivor superpower in the post cold war international system. This take us from an unipolar perspective to the return of an incipient multipolar world.
In this sense the US currently is showing interest in winning influence in Asia and we could see that the decision adopted for Washington is focus to India as a possible ally for the new world order. A proof of that is the change of opinion about the India´s nuclear power policy and the several trading exchanges promoted by the US. This country does not have the same tie bonds developed with Pakistan. This is changing because the Pakistan Government is apparently carrying out foreign lines of actions which differ from the US interests. A proof of that is the unofficial support to the Taliban. In this sense, if the problem were China, India its main natural opponent in Asia, is the best US. ally for a new world order. Due to some tendencies of the Indian Government, if an approach between China and India were coming up, the strategic balance in Asia would be very inconvinient for the US.
The US. National Security Strategy has a remarkable interest in the Middle East. It says “The conflict between Israel and Paletine is critic due to the magnitude of the human suffering, the tie bonds between the US, Israel and the Essential Arabic States and, the importance of the region for the US world vital interests”.
Apart from Latinamerica, Africa is another region out of the US strategic interest. Its high demography, its permanent ethnic conflicts in Ethiopy and Ruanda, its high rates of child mortality, food and drinkeable water scarcity, illegal migrations and the high rates of Aids. Most of african countries which suffer this variety of problems and those who are on the verge of collapse, are the main source of political violence, insecurity and the fights for the control of the power. In this region the US does not participate and when it has done some actions is because the seriousness of the situation and the pressure of the international organizations as happened in Darfur. If the strategic or security interest were not under risk or definitely does not exist, the US does not participate with the readiness they did in Iraq or Afghanistan, where the interest are extremely important and vital.
Therefore, if democratic or republican candidates were elected, we the Latinamericans should not expect important changes in the US policies. Consequently, in order to gain more influence in the international arena, the region should try to articulate stronger as a regional unit.
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Hay varias proyecciones mundiales acerca de la necesidad de asegurar recursos naturales para el futuro de la humanidad, y es así como hoy es posible vislumbrar sectores del planeta que serán ampliamente codiciados, y porque no decirlo fuentes de conflictos para obtener su control, por la ventaja en su condición geoestratégica que tendrán los Estados que tengan su soberanía. El peligro creciente del calentamiento global y la escasez de recursos energéticos, en un contexto de petróleo en precio variable y manejable por intereses de algunas potencias energeticas, amenazan con derretir las congeladas discusiones sobre la soberanía de los polos.
