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[lang_en]U.S. AND RUSSIA TOWARDS A NUCLEAR REARMAMENT AGAIN? IT SEEMS TO BE A NEW CONCERN OF BOTH COUNTRIES WHICH FEEL MUTUAL FEAR IN THEIR RESPECTIVE NUCLEAR DEFENSE PROGRAMS.[/lang_en][lang_es]¿SE REINICIA LA CARRERA POR EL REARME NUCLEAR ENTRE EE.UU. Y RUSIA? PARECE SER UNA NUEVA PREOCUPACIÓN, DE AMBOS ESTADOS, QUE SIENTEN TEMORES MUTUOS EN SUS PROGRAMAS DE DEFENSA NUCLEAR.[/lang_es]

07:59

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Al término de la Guerra Fría, el mundo se sentía aliviado de que la amenaza de la guerra  nuclear que siempre había estado presente entre ambos bandos, se había evitado y que ahora los arsenales nucleares serían desmantelados para asegurar el futuro de la humanidad. Sin embargo, durante los últimos meses, se ha evidenciado que existe una preocupación de ambos países por el estado de su capacidad militar nuclear, e incluso planes para modernizarla. Podemos deducir, que ambas naciones aún se observan como enemigas, y por ende deben tomar precauciones para su defensa.

El poderoso arsenal de armas nucleares de Estados Unidos, engendrado por la Segunda Guerra Mundial y alimentado por la Guerra Fría está declinando en poder y propósito, así como la capacidad de los cuerpos militares de manejar esas poderosas armas. Al mismo tiempo, los esfuerzos mundiales por contener la proliferación nuclear han sido ineficaces.[/lang_es][lang_en] 

At the end of the Cold War the world felt relief because the threaten of a nuclear war, which has been always present in both countries, had been avoided and now, nuclear weapons would be destroyed in order to ensure the future of the mankind. Notwithstanding the above, during the last month a concern of both countries about the state of their respective nuclear power has been shown, included plans for its modernization. We could conclude that both nations are still watching each other as enemies and therefore they must take precautions for their defense.

The powerful US. nuclear arsenal, born in the II world war and  feed by the cold war, is declining its power and purpose. The same is happening with the Military Corps capability to manage such a powerful weapon. At the same time the world efforts for no - proliferation has been ineffective.

The President of the Joint Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen wrote in the last issue of the military review “Joint Force Quarterly”, It is time that the country upgrades its nuclear strategy. He refers to the deterrence nuclear factor. The idea that the sole danger that a possible US nuclear retaliation could implies, is enough to dissuade the enemy attack with arms of mass destruction.

Both presidencial candidates are against nuclear proliferation, there is no doubt about it. Barack Obama and John McCain state in their campaigns that they support the US no - proliferation commitment, however none of them literally say that  the security or the credibility of the arsenal is under questioning.  This is an argument of republican legislators. Republican  Senator John Kyl for Arizona, said in a speech last 15 of september, that the nuclear net of industrial plants and laboratories, in some cases are old and falling down and that is equivalent to a “national emergency”.

Recently the USAF, has informed about the creation of a Nuclear Task Force, under the commnad of a three star General, which will gather all the air means with nuclear capabilities.

. The amount of US. nuclear weapons arsenal is secret, but M.Kristensen, member of the US. Scientist Federation, and his colleage the expert Robert. S. Norris have been watching the situation of the nuclear arsenal, and have calculated that the total active nuclear heads are 4,075 and 1,260  reserve aproximately

The 2020 Nuclear Deterrence System Plan announced by the Russian President Dmitri Medvédev, includes the creation of a new space defense program. During the meeting that the President held with the high military command in Oremburg (south of the Urals Mountains), he stated that a nuclear systems upgrade will guarantee “The decision making process in different military and political situations”

The program which will be finished next december, will create an “Aerospace Defense System”, has informed the Russian agency press Itar. Tass. “ We are planning at a great scale the manufacture of different types of war ships, particularly nuclear submarines with cruiser missiles

The Russian First Minister Vladimir Putin, announced a 27% increase in the 2009 defense and security  budget, which will reach 2,4 billion Roubles (70.000 million  Euros)

Since a few days ago Russia carried out a successful rehearsal of the 8,000 kilometers range Bulava intercontinental missile, which will be mounted on the last generation of atomic submarines.  30 tons missiles are almost impossible to defeat by today´s air defense systems, due to his high velocity and the capability to avoid radars and antimissiles by  modifying its trajectory during flight,

All this happens when the relations between both countries has suffered mutual recriminations related with the Caucasus Conflict, the anti missiles shield installation in Central Europe and the US. support given to the former Soviet Republics in terms to be part of  NATO.

 

 

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[lang_en]Air Force to Establish New Nuclear Major Command[/lang_en][lang_es]Air Force to Establish New Nuclear Major Command[/lang_es]

02:30

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ASHINGTON, Oct. 24, 2008 – The Air Force will stand up a new major command specifically to manage its nuclear assets, the service’s top official announced today.Air Force Secretary Michael B. Donley said the new command will fold into its ranks thousands of airmen and all of the Air Force’s domestic nuclear capabilities in response to what he called “painful lessons learned” during a series of senior oversight reviews of the Air Force’s nuclear program. 

This change is part of a broader sweep of changes Donley introduced today as a roadmap to improving the Air Force’s stewardship of its nuclear program. 

“This is a critical milestone for us. It’s a new starting point for reinvigoration of this enterprise,” Donley said at a Pentagon media roundtable to introduce the plan. 

“The changes we make today will help us focus on this enterprise regardless of other changes in Air Force missions along the way, and regardless of how big or small the nuclear enterprise is,” he said. 

The new command, called Global Strike Command, will include both the 8th and 20th Air Force. Eighth Air Force, currently within Air Combat Command, is made up of the force’s B-2 Spirit and B-52 Stratofortress bombers. The 20th Air Force, currently under Air Force Space Command, maintains and operates the service’s arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Eighth Air Force’s headquarters is at Barksdale Air Force Base, La., and 20th Air Force’s headquarters is at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyo. 

An additional squadron of B-52s, mandated by Congress, also will fall within the new command. 

This change effectively splits the Air Force’s bomber force, leaving its B-1 Lancer bombers with Air Combat Command. It also moves the cyber and intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance responsibilities out of 8th Air Force. 

“It was our conclusion that a major command that did space, cyber and nuclear perhaps was too much for a single organization to address with the necessary focus,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norman A. Schwartz. 

Management of nuclear-capable aircraft assigned to Europe will not fall under the new command, officials said. 

A three-star general will lead the new command, Donley said. Officials have not yet picked a location for the command’s headquarters or identified who its commander will be, but said they plan to name a provisional commander in the next few months. Donley said he plans to have the command operational by September. 

This plan, designed by the Air Force Nuclear Task Force, comes on the heels of major turmoil for the force in the past few years. In 2006, nuclear missile nose cones were inadvertently shipped to Taiwan, and in August 2007 the Air Force mistakenly flew nuclear weapons from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., to Barksdale Air Force Base, La. 

The force’s top two leaders resigned, and 15 senior officers, including six generals, were disciplined. 

This roadmap, Donley said, addresses longstanding, systemic problems in the force’s handling of nuclear assets. The plan addresses structural changes within the force, changes in its processes and procedures and a change within its culture, he said. 

One of the problems identified in recent reports was in the force’s nuclear inspection process. The secretary said the Air Force did not have consistent policies in place with consistent interpretations across commands, and needed a stronger oversight of the inspection process. 

“We were not getting out of our inspection process what we need,” Donley said, noting he has moved those responsibilities under the force’s inspector general, who will oversee all inspector training and certification. Also, a new Air Force headquarters staff directorate will be formed to provide oversight of nuclear issues within the force, Donley said. 

The Air Force secretary also announced establishment of a nuclear oversight board at the headquarters level that he will chair with Schwartz. 

Schwartz joined the roundtable via teleconference from Iraq, where he is visiting deployed airmen. 

“While today’s fight is vitally important to our Air Force, the capabilities that we provide in support of our nation’s nuclear deterrent force is just as, if not more, important,” he said. “The nation trusts us to provide them safely and securely.” 

Schwartz said the roadmap provides a “back to basics” approach for accountably, compliance, precision and reliability. 

The Air Forces also plans to rebuild its nuclear expertise within its ranks of airmen through training and career development, and officials said they plan to invest more heavily in the mission as it modernizes its nuclear capabilities. 

The Air Force spent about $85 million in the last fiscal year revamping its nuclear program. It expects to spend about $270 million in fiscal 2009, officials said. 

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[lang_en]THE FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS CRITICAL EFFECTS WILL INCREASE WORLD DISORDER AND THEREFORE STABILITY AND PEACE.[/lang_en][lang_es]LA CRISIS FINANCIERA, SUS GRAVES EFECTOS AUMENTARÁN EL DESORDEN MUNDIAL Y CON ELLO LA ESTABILIDAD Y LA PAZ.[/lang_es]

03:39

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La crisis financiera internacional, causada por el exceso de liquidez y la inadecuada regulación de un sistema financiero internacional muy integrado, ha colocado a la economía mundial al borde de la recesión. Los problemas del sistema financiero a nivel internacional, no son, sino otra crisis más, que se va a añadir a las que los países en vías de desarrollo ya sufren, lo que provocará un nuevo desorden a nivel mundial, que puede agrandar la brecha entre ricos y pobres, con todas las consecuencias de guerras, violencia y conflictos que puede conllevar. Qué duda cabe, que la crisis conducirá a una pobreza aún mayor, a través del aumento del desempleo, la inflación y el desabastecimiento de alimentos. Todos ingredientes aptos para que pueda germinar una rebelión generalizada, especialmente, en los países con Estados débiles, más aún, si en algunos de ellos, se suman luchas intestinas por factores políticos, étnicos, y/o religiosos, lo que sin dudas, puede comprometer la estabilidad internacional.

Ello, a pesar que según los especialistas, no todos los países se verán afectados en igual medida. Potencias emergentes como China, India, México, Brasil o Sudáfrica, se estima que mantendrán niveles de crecimiento importantes durante el 2009 y se hallan en buena posición para superar el embate.[/lang_es][lang_en]

 

The global financial crisis caused by excess of liquidity and the inadequate regulation of a very integrated international financial system, has moved the world economy to the verge of a recession. The problems of the international financial system are nothing but a new crisis which will impact the complicated developing countries economies. This will contribute to generate a new world disorder that could increase the breach between wealthy and poors, with all  associate consequences related to wars, violence and conflicts. There is no doubt that this crisis will lead to a deeper poverty due to an increase in unemployment, inflation and food scarcity. All of these elements could make germinate a global rebellion, specially in those countries which have weak States, moreover if they have political, ethnical and/or religious conflicts which could affect the international stability

According to specialists, not all countries will be equally affected. It is estimated that emergent powerful countries like China, India, México, Brazil or Southafrica, will keep their growth levels during 2009 and they will be in a good position in order to resist the impact.

In another level, poverty countries are being affected by the high price of raw material and food . Their economies will decrease growth rates from 6.6% to 4% or less. According to their parameters this rate represents a recession and the already known consequences.

Countries are adopting restrictive measures which will affect million people. As an example, emigration among others, is a problem. The new British Minister of Inmigration Phil Woolas has already announced that the UK. could harden the emigration policy due to difficulties caused by international financial crisis and mainly by the possibility of an increase in unemployment. “Untill now it has been very easy to enter to this country; but it will not happen anymore” replied. This is a prototype that could be followed by other european countries with high migratory tendencies.

In Latin America the emigration effects will be a problem aswell. For example  mexicans to the US. This has been a scape valve for labour market. Notwithstanding the above, consequences of the financial crisis and the increase in unemployment in the US. will represent, for Mexico and for Central American countries, less incomes due to inmigrators transfer and therefore less money for their families. To this problem we could add that there will be less vacancies for latino workers in US. and therefore, less exports which will cause damages to developing countries industries, more poverty and unsatisfaction which lead to an increase in social violence.

Another factor which will be affected is food supplies and therefore famine in the world. According to a World Bank report, high prices of food and oil will increase in 44 million the amount of people in the world who suffer undernourishment . This year that figure could reach 967 million. The “Food and Agriculture Organization” (FAO) has corrected the rate of people who suffer famine in the world, raising it from 850 million to 923 million human beings who live under the poverty threshold line.

According to UN. the situation in Africa continues being specially dramatic, particularly in the Sub-Saharan countries. This region which is being extremely affected by the consequences of the world climate change and by the financial crisis, will be strongly impacted in their development expectation.

Considering the dramatical population growth, crisis will lead to big disasters. As an example, studies conclude that 80 million Ethiopians could be 180 million in 2050

On the other site we have high prices of food. For example in Somalia the price of wheat increased in 300% untill april this year. The price of corn increased this year between 40 and 60%. This percentage raised the number of people who can not acquire it.

Developed countries have a difficult agenda which, in part should be focused to solve the world basic neccessities, in order to save human lives. These problems are among others financial and economical crisis, lack of food and energy sources, enviroment and climate change. All of them are threatening global development objectives and the fight against poverty.

That is why multilateral trading and the reform of internacional organizations require both short term responses and a broad vision focused on improving quality of life in a globalized world, based on relations of cooperation and not of engagement and competition. This will be the only way to guarantee peace, and the survival of the world. Developed countries have a responsibility with the mankind and it is time to assume. (Oct.24 2008)

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[lang_en]WORLD REARMAMENT, A PRESAGE TO PEACE INSTABILITY[/lang_en][lang_es]REARME MUNDIAL, UN PRESAGIO POCO ALENTADOR PARA LA PAZ [/lang_es]

07:41

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Recientemente Dante Caputo Secretario de Asuntos Políticos de la Organización de Estados Americanos, indico que “América Latina parece encaminada a un proceso de rearme que es realmente muy peligroso para la región”. Pero sin dudas que esta región no es la única que está desarrollando planes de rearme.

Cinco institutos líderes en investigación sobre la paz presentaron en Berlín su informe anual  2008 en el que criticaron el rearme mundial encabezado por Estados Unidos e instaron al gobierno alemán y a la Unión Europea a adoptar políticas más activas a favor del desarme y la paz mundial. “La nueva carrera armamentista tiene una diversidad de actores que la hacen más peligrosa que la Guerra Fría” dijo Andreas Heinemann-Grüder, del Centro Internacional de Conversión (BICC) de Bonn.[/lang_es][lang_en]

 

Dante Caputo, Secretary of Politic Affairs of the Organization of American States, recently said “Latin America seems to be under a rearmament process which is really dangerous for the region” However, there is no doubt that this region is not the only one that  is developing rearmament plans.

Five institutes leaders in peace investigation, announced in Berlin their 2008 annual report in which they critize world rearmament leaded by the US. They appeal to German government and European Union the adoption of more active policies for desarmament and world peace. “The new armament race has a variety of actors that make it danger than the Cold War” said Andreas Heinemann-Gruder, member of the Bonn International Conversion Center (BICC).

Except US, countries that have more expenses on armament are Great Britain, France, China and Japan. However, the main rates of growth registered in weapon acquisitions, in between 25 and 30 %, were India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Russia.

As the Russian vice-first Minister Serguei Ivanov said, “For Russia the 2009 State contracts of armament  will be 1,3 billion Roubles” (more than US$ 54 million). In 2009 Russia will put on service new Bulava-M balistic missile, capable to avoid the US. anti missiles shield DAM., deployed over the IV generation atomic submarines. Russia signed contracts untill 2011, for more than US $5.000 million exports of naval weapons, replied today Iván Goncharenko, deputy of the Russian Group Rosoboronexport.

These contracts, which have until 2011,different execution times, represent the 21% of   this public company fiscal requirements, specialized on international promotion of Russian armament

The Leader of the Libyan revolution Muammar al- Gaddafi who, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry source, will be arriving to Moscow next october 31st, has no visited Russia since 1985. Experts and analysts state that this visit could give a support to important contracts related with armament exports. According  to a Public Corporation Roctex (Russian Technologies) source, even though today there are not significant contracts signed with Lybia, the possibility of supply this country with sixteen Su-30 MKI airplanes, T-90 armored vehicles, Tor-M2E missiles system and spare parts for  material and armament sold before, is being considered.

“France signed a MOU which considers sell to Lybia up to eighteen Rafale airplanes, with a cost of 2,200 million Euros”, said Konstantin Makienko, expert of the Technologies and Strategies Analysis Center.  The transaction has not been already executed and the Russian airplanes has nothing to envy the French ones.

On the other hand, the European Union Security and Defense Policy, according to the 2010 Global Commitment, the contribution to Combat Groups Development and the participation in the European Defense Agency, considers that their State members actively participate in NATO initiatives. This initiatives have been enhanced and transformed, particularly the Praga Capabilities Commitment and  the Response Force. Because of that it is necessary to face the expenses produced by the vital participation in NATO internacional programs, such as NAEW ( Early Warning), NSIP (Investment in Security), which consider all kind of conventional armament. (Combat Vehicles, Fregates, Submarines, Airplanes, Helicopters etc.) For example, only Spain has 2008 expenses of 202,050 million Euros.

As another example we have the Greek Government Council for Foreign Affairs and Defense (KYSEA), which has accepted a 2006-2010 budget of 11.39 thousand million Euros, to modernize its military equipment, taking into account that Turkey has a commitment with the acquisition of one hundred  F-35s.

For example, in the Asian continent, India is also under a defense system modernization process, and it has signed various contracts with Israeli Companies. Pakistan, its potential enemy has being doing the same.

The real true shows that the world is under rearmament, not only nuclear weapons, but conventional ones. Nobody wants to talk about the armament race, but there is no doubt that it is begining and not only at regional level but at world level. The question is : Could world peace be guaranteed considering that all are being rearmed, having as a reference their potential enemies? (22. OCT.2008)

 

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